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Lies, damned lies and statistics. The monthly TV Licensing letter ('no record of a TV Licence', 'Enforcement offices authorised to interview you under caution', 'buy a TV Licence today', the usual) arrived today, nothing really interesting in it today to write about. Just one thing I picked up on:
They fairly regularly have a sentence about how many evaders they catch on average. That average is either some kind of rolling average or their success rate varies dramatically. Let's compare a few numbers, the number mentioned in the respective letter in bold, the other numbers are calculated:
Letter | From | Annually | Monthly | Daily | Quote |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mar 2006 | Richard Goodbody, Regional Manager, Bristol Enforcement Division | 77,379 | 6448 | 212 | On average, Officers from our Enforcement Division catch 77,739 people every year |
Feb 2006 | John Hales, Head of TV Licensing Enforcement Division | 895,836 | 74,653 | 2,454 | We take TV Licence evasion very seriously, and last month alone we caught 74,653 evaders |
Jan 2006 | John Hales, TV Licensing Enforcement Manager | 405,372 | 33,781 | 1,110 | We take this offence very seriously and last month alone we caught 33,781 people |
Jul 2005 | Michelle Tunstall, TV Licensing Enforcement Manager | 365,000 | 30,000 | 1,000 | Perhaps that's why every day we catch around 1,000 evaders |
Mar 2006 | Richard Goodbody, Regional Manager, Swindon Enforcement Division | 74,538 | 6,211 | 204 | On average, Officers from our Enforcement Division catch 74,538 people every year |
Nov 2004 | Miles Caines, TV Licensing Enforcement Manager | 178,632 | 14,886 | 489 | We take this offence very seriously and last month alone we prosecuted 14,886 people |
Oct 2004 | Michelle Tunstall, TV Licensing Enforcement Manager | 365,000 | 30,000 | 1,000 | Perhaps that's why every day we catch around 1,000 evaders |
Now some of these number seem to be regional while others seem to be national. Nevertheless even the national numbers vary from approx 180,000 to 900,000 per annum (calculated based on monthly figures, but steadily rising)? And the Bristol/Swindon (either Mr Goodbody or his office has moved?) numbers seem strangely similar?
According to National Statistics the UK has approx 60 million inhabitants and 25 million households. Assuming there only needs to be one licence per household that means approx 3.5% of all households are caught as evaders every year (using the 900,000/year number). A nation of criminals indeed.
Too bad for Mr Goodbody, Mr Hales, Mrs Tunstall and Mr Caines that I won't help them to inflate their statistics: I still don't have a television (or television programme receiving equipment for that matter) and therefore don't need a licence. Apart from that I'm still waiting for a visit of their TV Licensing Enforcement Officer, which was first announced to me in September 2003, 2.5 years ago. Empty promises or what?
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